Update: New data source
Since the launch of Price Know-how in 2013 the data for the Styenics, Polyolefins and Engineering Polymer price baskets have been sourced externally. In 2023 this approach was reviewed and following careful evaluation it has been determined that Plastribution’s own internal data source provides equivalent information with the advantages of not requiring currency conversion and of being based upon actual UK transactions.
In order to provide continuity, the internal data will be applied to all polymer pricing information contained within Price Know-how from February 2024 onwards.
We hope that you continue to value the Price Know-how publication and we always welcome any suggestions you make.
Overview
Will sellers achieve a soft rollover, or will buyers be able to achieve more significant discounts for polyolefins?
Polyolefin buyers continue to reference the price drops that were evident last summer along with the uplift in pricing that occurred at the beginning of 2024 due to the Red Sea shipping issues, in the expectation that prices will fall as already weak demand will soon be augmented by the fall in seasonal demand as processors in many European regions reduce throughput due to seasonal holidays. On the other hand, sellers are reluctant to even pass through the small reduction in the C2 and C3 contract price from April to May. US PE producers appear to be resisting calls to discount export pricing, as US domestic prices have recently increased something in the order of £50 per tonne and whilst there may be some interesting offers on materials from other regions availability is thought to be limited.
A modest improvement in underlying demand appears to be providing sellers with some confidence that de-stocking of the supply chain is finally coming to an end.
The situation for engineering and styrene-based polymers continues to be quite stable, despite some significant hikes affecting Benzene and SM feedstocks.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£1,071.16
£8.57
C3 (Propylene)
£972.61
£8.57
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,465.35
£95.12
Benzene
£957.19
£129.40
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£535.82
£34.30
Exchange Rates
€
1.17
$
1.25
€/$
1.07
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q4 2023
£566,626
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
April
49.1%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q4 2023
101.5%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
April 2024
679,822
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
March 24
118.3%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Dec 23 – Feb 24
4.2%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
March
3.2%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
March
4.3%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
May
5.25%
Polyolefins
Polyolefin prices are relatively stable in May following modest changes in monomers. Ethylene C2 and Propylene C3 both dropped €10 / MT and this change is mostly reflected in polymer pricing. Some producers are still looking for rollover, but most have passed on the reductions. Some grades are falling more with good availability on LLDPE leading to spot deals being more available than earlier in the year. Restrictions in local PP production and lower levels of imports have kept PP pricing stronger. LDPE and HDPE falling somewhere in between.
Short term outlook is for relative stability in pricing. Although imports are increasing, US producers are looking for price increases domestically and will reconsider their exports to Europe accordingly. China is showing sings of an improving economy and increased manufacturing. Europe has some tiny suggestions of green shoots in the economy too so hopefully, demand will pick up in the second half of the year.
Recent closure announcements of SABIC and Exxon crackers in Europe have not affected sentiment very much with these seemingly already factored into a market that was well supplied with monomer. Major Petrochemical Companies are conducted reviews of their operations in Europe as the world is oversupplied with PE and PP. With energy costs still relatively high in Europe, we’re not the cost-effective place to make polymers and further rationalisation is likely in the coming 3-5 years.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE has mostly followed the monomer change with some producers citing low availability to ask for rollover whilst others have reduced by more than monomer to stimulate demand having additional capacity available.
LDPE market is very local with low levels of imports compared to other PE grades. European producers are doing their best to keep production matched with demand.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
C4 LLDPE is the grade falling the most with reductions of €30-50 / MT generally seen in the market as supply is beyond demand with imports both from the USA and Middle East increasing in the short term. These may ease off in a few months as demand elsewhere in the world improves and offers a better return.
Hexene grades largely followed in line with C4, but Metallocene was seen as a little bit short and there are already order stops in place leading to some to ask for rollover.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is a bit like LLDPE, and we see increasing imports from USA and Middle East, but availability is a bit more limited and so reductions are more like €10-30 / MT.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP is quite stable, and some sellers are looking for rollover as availability is more limited with production in Europe hit by planned and unplanned shutdowns. Imports are not as strong compared to PE and many PP buyers have more demanding specifications than with generic LLDPE and HDPE grades.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing has followed monomer down. Polyolefin Elastomers are typically rollover.
Styrenics
Contract Styrene Falls, Polymer prices decrease.
Styrene Monomer has fallen, settling at €1710/T, a decrease of €111/T from April.
For May, EU GPPS and HIPS has fallen, with EU ABS following. Deep sea materials are steady. Prices could continue along this trend as SM supply has improved, but demand has not.
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are still running very low. Polymer producers have been running output at a minimum due to poor demand, and converters and distributors running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
April saw a €44/T increase in Styrene monomer, and PS followed. Producers did not pass on the full increase, possibly in an attempt to maintain demand.
May reversed the upward trend, with SM falling by €11/T, which has been applied to PS prices. Supply and demand are both low, so remain in equilibrium. Due to this supply chains are empty; any price changes are immediate.
ABS
Supply
Demand
Composite Monomers are still trended upwards in April (SM +€44/t, butadiene +€70, ACN +€43). Supply and demand were still low, but availability improved, as far eastern materials, delayed by red sea issues, began to arrive. Demand was throttled by high prices.
May brings a reversal (SM -€111/t, butadiene +€45, ACN -€4), but as demand remains stagnant as converters may wait for the bottom of the market.
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
Demand remains weak and the supply chain plentiful for most materials, which is making it challenging for producers to pass on the increases they had hoped for in quarter two. With the exception of PA6 and PMMA, the increases have been minimal.
The Benzene contract for May decreased by €151/MT to €1117/MT.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
Quarter two has seen significant increases pushed through, but it remains to be seen if these are successful with such weak demand. European producers continue to cut back on production to try and balance the market in the hope of recovering at least a proportion of the additional raw material costs.
PA66
Supply
Demand
Extremely low demand is making it difficult for producers to push through any meaningful increases, they are reducing output to mirror weak demand but have had to settle with more modest price rises.
POM
Supply
Demand
There has been some evidence of stock building in the automotive sector and E & E markets, which has given the opportunity for producers to try and push through some small increases. However, demand is still low and inventory levels are more than adequate to fulfil orders.
PC
Supply
Demand
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Price increases announced for Quarter two on the back of increasing MMA costs, however producers are finding it challenging to implement with continued poor demand, especially in the automotive sector.
PBT
Supply
Demand
A similar picture to other engineering materials, i.e. weak demand, and therefore only minor changes expected.
Other Engineering Polymers
The theme is similar for most engineering materials, and we still see the impact on lead-times from the challenges of the Red Sea situation. Producers in Europe are cutting back output to mirror weak demand. Some price increases announced but these are proving difficult to push through.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled materials have seen around rollover in May with demand improving and availability of some grades restricted.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE has seen around rollover in May with supply and demand relatively balanced. Whilst prime grades have benefitted from a monomer reduction, costs of bales of recycling waste have increased putting further pressure on recycler’s margins.
Higher quality grades are pushing for an increase to reflect this as demand for “near Prime” recyclate continues to be strong. Lower quality grades have better availability and are under some downwards price pressure.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE also typically rolled over but high-quality grades for consumer packaging continue to command strong premiums over Prime. Industrial materials are more readily available and pricing reflects this with some drops reported for black extrusion grades.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP typically saw rollover with a little bit of downward pressure as supply is relatively good. Producers are resisting though with costs still very high, and margins squeezed to the last drop. Natural pellet still at a significant premium though as demand from brands for recycled content is growing.
