Overview
What will increasing feedstock costs, and a stronger USD mean for polymer prices?
Whilst a $0.03 increase in the value of the USD against both the GBP and Euro should drive cost inflation both directly for polymers sourced from outside Europe, which are typically priced in USD, and indirectly through feedstock costs for European petrochemical producers, where Crude Oil is priced in USD, the stark reality is that supply demand balance is of paramount importance.
From the viewpoint of polymer buyers, it matters little whether the weakness is resulting from lower monomer costs or stiff competition for scant polymer orders. The extent of price movements is polymer specific and, with the exception of some rollovers on tighter and more specialist grades, the tendency is still towards lower prices throughout November and into December.
The start of 2025 is expected to be dynamic as demand returns to normal, following the seasonal converter shutdowns in December and as polymer suppliers contemplate price increases in order to improve beleaguered margins.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£1,004.57
-£6.25
C3 (Propylene)
£896.19
-£8.34
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,173.80
-£5.84
Benzene
£676.94
-£40.85
Butadiene
£821.16
-£41.68
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£433.63
-£2.28
Exchange Rates
€
1.20
$
1.27
€/$
1.06
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q2 2024
£639,095
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
November
48.0%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q3 2024
100.4%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
November YTD
1,658,382
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
October 24
104.9%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Jul 24 – Sept 24
4.3%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
October
2.3%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
October
3.1%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
November
4.75%
Polyolefins
Polyolefin prices are mostly rolling over in December, with some grades under a little bit of downward pressure.
Whilst Ethylene C2 and Propylene C3 both reduced by €7.5 / MT and €10 / MT respectively, many producers are not agreeing to pass these on as they swallowed much bigger monomer increases in November. Demand continues to be poor and consequently, there are some deals available from traders.
Outlook for the New Year is for a rollover to begin with and then some strengthening of prices around February. Producers can’t keep making losses indefinitely so at some point, there will be a change in approach. 2025 could be a volatile year with potential plant closures and further rationalisation in the European industry. Add to that some uncertainty with potential new tariffs on major trade flows, with possible impacts on freight rates and availability, we could be in for a rocky period.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE is broadly rolling over, with most European suppliers attempting to match supply to the relatively weak demand.
Imports are limited, helping to keep prices stable.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
C4 LLDPE is a rollover in most cases but the odd pocket of lower prices from traders has been reported as they try and stimulate some demand.
Exports from USA to Europe are typically high in December but with a stronger dollar, they’re not quite as competitively priced as they were. This will potentially drive pricing back up in 2025.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is rolling over, but like LLDPE, some activity at a small discount as traders look to move stock and generate cash at the end of the year.
USA is big exporter of HDPE to the UK and with recent strengthening of the Dollar, prices should increase in 2025 as these loads arrive.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing has rolled over into December, with the odd report of some sellers offering a monomer reduction of €10 depending on their starting point and desire to stimulate demand.
Deals are available for volume buyers if you’re willing to take it before Christmas. Outlook for early 2025 is mixed with demand not expected to increase significantly but availability is also expected to be restricted.
What’s less clear is how freight rates might impact exports from S E Asia. Increases in shipping costs since the end of October are adding approximately $50 / MT to material loading now.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing has rolled over. Polyolefin Elastomers are also rolling over.
Styrenics
Contract EU Styrene prices fall, cancelling small rise from previous month. EU polymers are looking steady.
Styrene monomer has fallen by just €7/T, settling at €1408/T.
For December, EU GPPS, HIPS and ABS either rolled prices or followed the small drop.
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are running at reduced rates, no doubt triggered by low demand. Converters and distributors are running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
November saw Styrene Monomer (SM) prices rise slightly, settling at €1415/T, a €5/T rise on October levels. Supply was normal, albeit at reduced levels, but demand poor, as most converters had taken advantage of the large October drop
The small SM fall in December does little to change the situation, Supply is good generally as all EU plants are up and running, with some producing over the holidays, but demand is now very subdued, due to stocking in previous months and year end destocking.
ABS
Supply
Demand
November delivered very little change. (SM +€5/t, butadiene roll, ACN +€41/t). Availability was fine, but demand low due to the same reasons as PS.
December shows a slight uplift in pricing as far eastern materials are affected by the strong dollar. (SM -€7/t, butadiene -€50/t, ACN +€9/t)
Supply is good as all EU plants are up and running, with some producing over the holidays, but demand is now very subdued due to stocking in previous months and year end destocking.
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS, but supply/demand are not as extreme.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
December is traditionally a shorter month, however it is anticipated that the year will end abruptly as producers cutback on production and start maintenance programs.
Demand remains extremely poor across most materials and market sectors. Inventories are heavily stocked and prices continue to drop for most polymers.
The December benzene contract has settled €49/Mt lower than November at €812/Mt.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
Poor demand, high inventory levels and further reductions in price.
PA66
Supply
Demand
Weak demand, reducing prices and no recovery expected, partly due to a poor economic outlook within the automotive sector.
POM
Supply
Demand
Increased imports and weak demand are driving down prices.
PC
Supply
Demand
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Poor demand and increased imports are continuing to put downward pressure on prices.
PBT
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and reducing prices.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is similar, with weak demand and downward price pressure.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins have mostly rolled over in December alongside prime prices.
It remains to be seen how much impact recent closures of recycling plants in the UK will have on availability and pricing, but at the time of writing, supply still appears to be good and demand still quite weak.
There have been some suggestions that many organisations involved in producing cosmetics packaging are demanding more high quality natural recycled HDPE & PP to meet their sustainability goals.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE has mostly rolled over in December.
High-quality grades continue to see strong demand and restricted availability leading to prices keeping above virgin.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE is typically rollover with industrial grades continuing to be under pressure with lower than hoped for demand in construction and other key markets.
Natural grades for consumer packaging continue to see significant premiums over virgin prices.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP is rolling over in December though pressure remains on industrial grades with continued poor demand in key sectors.
As with other recycled grades, high quality natural commands a strong premium over virgin.
