Overview
The Trump Tariff Regime is causing significant uncertainty across a wide range of markets, with the petrochemicals sector witnessing feedstock reductions, which correspond to both the fall in crude oil prices and to the potential demand for petrochemical feedstocks.
The initial rout has resulted in most plastic buyers adopting a ‘wait and see’ strategy as it is unclear as to whether prices will plummet, move sideways or indeed possibly move upward. Whilst no two crises are every quite the same, for many the memories of the price and availability issues are not a distant memory.
For sure there is much to be unsure of with predictions varying from non-US markets becoming awash with product as sellers are forced to seek other export opportunities for materials that that cannot overcome the high tariff hurdle, to the possibility that counter-tariffs will create import paralysis as importers avoid the risk of being caught out with material on ‘the high seas’ as punitive duties are applied.
The recently announced 90-day curfew that President Trump has granted on many of the countries and/or products facing elevated tariffs, should provide some temporary respite and alleviate the risk of counter-tariffs being imposed in the more immediate future.
For sure, the only current certainty is uncertainty, as the world waits to see the outcome of Trump Tariff Masterplan.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£1,008.71
-£46.04
C3 (Propylene)
£904.07
-£46.04
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,252.30
-£48.55
Benzene
£560.02
-£149.84
Butadiene
£862.21
-£16.74
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£416.78
-£32.00
Exchange Rates
€
1.19
$
1.29
€/$
1.08
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q4 2024
£642,287
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
April
44.9%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q4 2024
99.6%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
March 2025 YoY
12%
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
February 25
107.3%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Nov 24 – Jan 25
4.4%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
February
2.8%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
February
3.4%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
March
4.50%
Polyolefins
April has been a month of uncertainty with markets thrown into turmoil with the announcement of tariffs, anticipation of retaliatory tariffs and the potential impact on availability and pricing of European Polyolefins.
Whilst both C2 Ethylene and C3 Propylene dropped by €55 / MT, we saw further separation in the pricing as PP typically dropped by around the monomer and PE mostly rolled over due to uncertainty surrounding availability of US imports. Whilst the tariff situation appears to have been temporarily cooled down in the last few days, it remains to be seen what impact the retaliatory tariffs from the EU the market expected to see kick in the middle of the month has had on exports from the USA. We could see a temporary shortage of the key grades we import, LLDPE and HDPE.
Outlook for the short & medium term is uncertain, and the disruption to supply chains is still not clear, but we do at least appear to have some breathing space for the next three months following the tariff suspension. With the expectation of an immediate response from the EU removed, we can expect to see stronger exports from the USA to the EU and the UK.
With the tariff uncertainty unsettling the global economy, we’ve seen oil prices fall and that is likely to be passed through into monomer pricing. Whilst the European producers are facing very challenging times, they are likely to be forced into passing reductions through as imports from lower cost regions remain strong.
The weakening £ against the € is causing some upward price adjustment requests though it remains to be seen how successful they will be in the face of poor demand
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE has seen a little bit of softening this month having seen the strongest price increases in the first quarter of the year. Demand has softened slightly and as a grade that is not typically dependent on US imports, buyers have been able to push for some of the monomer reduction this month.
Some producers are still holding out for rollover as they limit production to match demand.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
LLDPE appears to be rollover this month, but the position may change in the second half of the month following the recent announcement on the tariff pause.
There may be some disruption to supply chains as some exports from USA were temporarily halted due to tariff uncertainty, but these should resume shortly. We may see some spikes (up and down) as the market regains a balance.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is broadly a rollover in April but with some drops reported as availability from Middle East and other non-USA sources was better than LLDPE. There was more confidence in the HDPE market that the effects of retaliatory tariffs on USA exports would be less impactful than LLDPE.
Some disruption is a possibility though as several key producers in the Middle East are about to start on extended planned maintenance periods.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing has mostly dropped in line with monomer in April with some variation either side. Poor demand within the industry from key sectors such as Automotive continue to upset the supply demand balance, potentially pushing prices down further than monomer.
Oil price reductions are adding to the expectation of lower feedstock costs and these being passed through in the coming months.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing has initially rolled over following tariff uncertainty, picture for second half of April is not clear. Some pockets of tightness in EVA remain so we may see some producers holding on for rollover. Polyolefin Elastomers are a rollover. They are priced quarterly but feedstock costs are very similar to the start of the year.
Styrenics
Contract EU Styrene falls.
Styrene Monomer has fallen by €58/T, settling at €1496/T.
For April, EU GPPS and HIPS reduced by €55-60/T and EU ABS followed (+€50/T). Non Flame retardant Import ABS Rollover. FR ABS facing increases due to FR Shortage.
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are still running at reduced rates, no doubt triggered by low demand. Converters and distributors are also running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
March SM rose €65/T, with Monomer settling at €1554/T. GPPS and HIPS Supply was normal, albeit at reduced levels as demand remained poor.
April brings a fall in feedstock pricing (-€58) and Polymer prices have fallen, although the weakening GBP/EUR rate has reduced the benefit of this. Material availability is good, with producers not feeling the need to enforce quotas. Demand is sluggish, as converters are likely working through their stocks.
It should be noted that some EU PS producers use styrene monomer imported from the US to supplement shortages of EU SM. At time of writing nothing is confirmed, but it is possible that reciprocal tariffs could inflate feedstock prices, and push polymer prices higher
ABS
Supply
Demand
March prices increased (SM +€65/t, butadiene +€20/t, ACN -€8/t). Availability was fine, but demand low due to the same reasons as PS.
April shows a decrease for EU produced ABS. Composite monomer prices have fallen (SM -€58/t, butadiene -€20/t, ACN -€92/t) and far eastern materials are holding price. Supply is good for standard ABS but expect shortages and price increases for FR ABS, due to a global shortage of Antimony Trioxide.
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS, but supply/demand are not as extreme. FR PC/ABS is not affected by the Antimony Trioxide shortage, and is a good replacement.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
March ended up similar to January and February. Producers found it difficult to push through any meaningful increases in what is an incredibly competitive market with more than adequate supply. There will be renewed efforts to try again for price increases into Q2 but with the Easter holidays there could well be a distinct lack of appetite to buy.
The March benzene contract settled €179/Mt lower than February at €669/mt.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
Many producers took the opportunity to try and push through increases in March and the rest will probably follow in April. However the market is extremely competitive with producers and distributors fighting for every piece of business, so the range of prices is very varied and puts a skew on what the real market price is.
PA66
Supply
Demand
PA66 follows the same trend as PA6 with weak demand, and further announcements of price increases for April.
POM
Supply
Demand
A competitive market with plentiful supply, and poor demand.
PC
Supply
Demand
The benzene contract settled €179/Mt lower than March. Demand remains weak so the best outcome for producers is stable prices.
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Weak demand from the automotive sector in particular is making it increasingly difficult for producers to recoup the higher costs of MMA.
PBT
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and stable prices at best.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is similar, with weak demand, plentiful supply, and therefore stable pricing at best.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins have mostly seen rollover in April but with some up and downs depending on availability and demand. PP dropped a little as demand in key sectors continues to be poor but PE did see some stronger pricing as demand picked up and there was some uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on the availability of prime grades. The weakening £ against the € is causing some upward price adjustment requests though it remains to be seen how successful they will be in the face of poor demand.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE increased a little in April with some tightness in the availability of premium grades and slightly better demand as prime LDPE had been rising recently. High performance grades offering prime performance whilst meeting the requirements of the packaging tax continue to demand a strong premium over virgin grades.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE has mostly rolled over in April, the overall market is reasonably balanced with some ups and downs depending on quality and application. High quality natural grades for packaging have seen increased demand this month, some producers of high quality natural PCR HDPE are asking for prices closer to £2,000 / MT as they increased demand from major brands.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP has slightly slipped in April as prime prices are following the monomer reduction of €55 / MT and buyers are demanding similar reductions for their recycled options.
