Overview
With the exception of benzene, feedstock prices nudge forward in contrast to a decline in crude oil costs.
The modest increases in C2 (Ethylene) and C3 (Propylene) polyolefin feedstocks look like the result hard-fought battles between buyers and sellers, with C3 sellers fairing slightly better. The impact on spot PP and PE pricing is likely to be limited as supply of both materials remains abundant.
The increase in Styrene Monomer (SM) appears to be supply and demand based, despite the fall in Benzene costs which is a common feedstock for SM production along with SM being a co-product from PO (propylene oxide) manufacture (feedstock for polyurethane). Some recent announcements concerning the rationalisation of PO may have been of influence.
With the Easter holidays falling towards the end of April, demand will not be choked by seasonal holidays and this should keep prices firm for all polymers through until the end of the quarter.
Monomer Price Movement
Feedstock
Price per Tonne
Change (contract)
C2 (Ethylene)
£1,046.58
£2.08
C3 (Propylene)
£942.75
£6.23
SM (Styrene Monomer)
£1,290.78
£53.99
Benzene
£704.36
-£9.14
Butadiene
£872.15
£16.61
Brent Crude (monthly average)
£448.78
-£27.83
Exchange Rates
€
1.20
$
1.25
€/$
1.04
Mike Boswell
Managing Director – Plastribution Group
Oil Prices
No Data Found
Exchange Rates
No Data Found
UK Economic Data
Topic
Item
Date
Change
Trend
GDP
Real GDP (Q on Q)
Q3 2024
£639,452
PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI
February
46.9%
UK Output
Manufacturing Index
Q4 2024
99.6%
Sales
New Car Registrations (Y on Y)
February 25 YTD
-1%
Sales
Retail Sales (Y on Y)
January 25
106.7%
Labour
Unemployment Rate
Oct 24 – Dec 24
4.4%
Prices
CPI (Y on Y)
January
3.0%
Prices
RPI (Y on Y)
January
3.6%
Interest Rates
Bank of England Base Rate
March
4.50%
Polyolefins
March has broadly gone with rollover with minor movements in monomers not pushed through following the monomer plus price increases of February. Ethylene C2 increased by just €2.5 / MT and Propylene C3 by €7.50 / MT.
LDPE is perhaps the one grade that may see further increases due to tighter supply and reasonable demand. All other grades are seeing rollover so far.
Outlook for the short & medium term is very uncertain as the impact of tariffs on US imports not clear. Whilst it seems very likely that the EU will impose tariffs of 25% on imports of PE from the USA, we don’t know if the UK will follow. If we don’t impose tariffs, we could be overwhelmed with material as US producers focus on us but if we do impose tariffs, then prices will inevitably rise. The tariffs will have a significant effect on global trade flows and could lead to some serious supply chain disruption as we adjust to importing material from other locations.
We can source LLDPE and HDPE from the Middle East, but it will take time for these routes to become established again with the continued Suez disruption. This effect will mostly be felt by PE but there could be spill over into PP if we see a lack of container availability and space at Middle East ports. PP can also be supplied from the Far East, but it could take months for supply routes to adjust.
European Petrochemicals Industry continues to see reports of further planned rationalisation and whilst the first half of March has seen oil prices dropping and with it, Naphtha, we may not see this passed through to monomers due to cracker outages and tightness of supply. Spot prices for C2 and C3 have risen this month on the back of tight supply.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Polyolefins
Polyolefins Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
LDPE
Supply
Demand
LDPE has seen the strongest price increases this year and whilst some are pushing for modest increases this month, sellers that achieved a three figure increase in February seem content with that for now.
LDPE is dependent on local production to met the needs of converters and European producers are being very careful to manage the supply to try and keep it balanced with the demand.
LLDPE
Supply
Demand
LLDPE is a rollover this month, there are some hints of reductions, but these seem to be based around an improved exchange rate with the US$ and are possibly for shipments that have yet to arrive.
For immediate supply, rollover appears to be market position. LLDPE is probably the grade at greatest threat from tariffs disrupting supply as we import a lot into Europe from the USA.
In 2024, almost 1.5 million MT came across the Atlantic. There are rumours that some US producers are halting shipments of PE to Europe as they anticipate that by the time it arrives, tariffs will be in place. Not clear what the UK will do but there is a distinct possibility that we will follow.
HDPE
Supply
Demand
HDPE is, like LLDPE, broadly a rollover but with some variation between the different types. There are reports of prices slipping slightly but it is likely that these are prices being quoted for material arriving in April as shipments from USA are cheaper as the exchange rate has improved.
As with LLDPE, HDPE could be affected by the trade war with the USA, whilst we can source equivalents from Middle East, it will take time to adjust and supply chain disruption could temporarily spike prices.
PP
Supply
Demand
PP pricing has largely rolled over in March, whilst there was a €7.5 / MT increase in propylene, most producers accepted that they couldn’t pass this through due to continued weak demand from the market.
Although European supply is slightly disrupted, it is not sufficient to cause concerns about availability and buyers are relaxed about securing their needs. Outlook for April is unclear; monomer may increase again and tariffs could have an impact on trade flows leading to a lack of imports.
Other Polyolefins
EVA pricing has stayed flat but there are pockets of tightness as local supply is slightly disrupted. Polyolefin Elastomers are a rollover as they are typically priced quarterly.
Styrenics
Contract EU Styrene rises again.
Styrene Monomer has increased by €65/T, settling at €1554/T.
For March, EU GPPS and HIPS increased by €65/T and EU ABS followed (+€50/T). Import ABS Rollover
GPPS/HIPS/ABS supply chains are still running at reduced rates, no doubt triggered by low demand. Converters and distributors are also running inventory at very low levels due to financial pressures. Therefore, any adjustments in polymer prices are likely to be passed on immediately.
Andrew Waterfield
Product Supervisor – Styrenics
Styrenics Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PS
Supply
Demand
February SM rose €45/T, with Monomer settling at €1489/T. Supply was normal, albeit at reduced levels, but demand poor, as most converters had already stocked up due to holidays
March brings another SM increase (+€65) and Polymer prices have risen by the same. Material availability is good, with producers not feeling the need to enforce quotas. Demand is sluggish, as converters are likely working through their stocks.
ABS
Supply
Demand
February prices increased slightly (SM +€45/t, butadiene +€45/t, ACN +€56/t). Availability was fine, but demand low due to the same reasons as PS.
February shows another uplift in EU pricing. Composite monomer prices have risen (SM +€65/t, butadiene +€20/t, ACN -€8/t) but far eastern materials are holding price, no doubt benefiting from the drop in $ value. Supply is good as all EU plants are up and running, but demand remains subdued.
PC/ABS
Supply
Demand
As usual, PC/ABS price is following the trend of ABS, but supply/demand are not as extreme.
Other Styrenics
SAN and specialities such as ASA and Q Resin continue to follow the price trend of ABS.
Engineering Polymers
February sales levels were similar to January, and order activity was OK. Some volumes from key market areas was missing, and demand for March is likely to be comparable with no meaningful changes. There has been some price increase announcements for Polyamide from the larger producers, however the market is extremely competitive with plentiful supply so it is unlikely they will be realised.
The March benzene contract settled €11/mt lower than February at €848/mt.
Sharron Jarvis
Product Supervisor – Engineering Polymers
Engineering Polymer Feedstocks
£/Metric Tonne by month
No Data Found
PA6
Supply
Demand
Some producers have taken the opportunity to try and push through increases for March on the back of force majeure announcements from a couple of large caprolactam plants. It remains to be seen if these can be achieved given the low demand.
PA66
Supply
Demand
PA66 follows the same trend as PA6 with weak demand, and some announcements of price increases for March.
POM
Supply
Demand
An incredibly competitive market with plentiful supply, and poor demand. No notable changes are expected so we could see further pressure on prices.
PC
Supply
Demand
The benzene contract settled €11/mt lower than February. Demand remains weak so the best outcome for producers is rollover pricing for the month of March.
PMMA
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and no recovery from the automotive sector is making it increasingly difficult for producers to recoup the higher costs of MMA.
PBT
Supply
Demand
Weak demand and stable prices at best.
Other Engineering Polymers
The current situation for most other engineering materials is similar, with weak demand and rollover or downward price pressure.
Sustainable Polymers
Recycled Polyolefins have seen mostly seen rollover in March as most grades are following the trends in virgin grades. Demand is still slightly weak with key sectors such as construction still struggling, but there are signs of improvement in the medium term with increased taxes on packaging stimulating some growth.
Ian Chisnall
Product Manager – Sustainability
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled LDPE / LLDPE has rolled over in March. High performance grades offering prime performance whilst meeting the requirements of the packaging tax continue to demand a strong premium over virgin grades.
Recycled HDPE
Supply
Demand
Recycled HDPE has rolled over in March, whilst some market sectors are down, others are up, and the overall market is reasonably balanced. High quality natural grades for packaging have seen increased demand this month.
Recycled PP
Supply
Demand
Recycled PP has mostly rolled over, demand from the key sector of Automotive continues to be weak in the short term although the longer-term future appears much brighter. More interest in higher quality grades as companies look for ways to lower their carbon footprint and the saving in CO2 from virgin to recycled PP is significant.
